Monday, December 10, 2007

Joust The Facts: "Belief In" Global Warming

re: "...Wall Street Journal carried a Holman Jenkins Jr. column on the patron saint of rising ocean levels, Nobel Prize winner Al Gore, the former VP. It's a very good read, if you can get past the subscriber wall. I found one quote particularly interesting. Mr. Jenkins first notes the psychological work of another couple of Nobel Prize winners: //How this honor has befallen the former Veep could perhaps be explained by another Nobel, awarded in 2002 to Daniel Kahneman for work he and the late Amos Tversky did on "availability bias," roughly the human propensity to judge the validity of a proposition by how easily it comes to mind. /Their insight has been fruitful and multiplied: "Availability cascade" has been coined for the way a proposition can become irresistible simply by the media repeating it; "informational cascade" for the tendency to replace our beliefs with the crowd's beliefs; and "reputational cascade" for the rational incentive to do so..."...

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